Industry Rubber Hose On the whole
In April, the price of gels continued to be significantly lower. After the cost of synthetic glue collapsed, the stage of the production of finished products was stabilized and recovered, and the air quality was weakened. The inventory accumulation - selling - slump has been performed on the basis of the release of the inventory pressure in the trading business after the double killing speed. The problem of the current industrial chain is the high inventory of tyres and car links. Thailand's stock market has worsened, and Thailand is likely to have a surplus of 10.70 million tons of old plastic stockpiles by the end of may.
In the short term, in the early days of the day, there is no pressure, and 4-may is traditionally the month of inventory. Dili in September contract premium mixed gel/old full latex spreads are still on the high side, November 9 - concentrated delivery liter discount repair bad, the positive factor lies in the gap between 9-1 to 2100 yuan/ton high, far month high premium to attract some warehouse receipt pressure; And varieties of synthetic rubber phase stabilized rebound aspect brother, June 4 - planned centralized maintenance, environmental protection part of the parking device also slow down the supply pressure, imports from butadiene to synthetic rubber arbitrage window closes.
The core drive in 16 years was driven by demand, with a less than expected supply. 17 years of relatively high demand to stimulate supply, demand overdraft after a period of low period, 17 years supply and demand core to switch back to supply. We have forecast the global supply and demand balance of natural rubber for 17-18 years. The benchmark of the balance sheet is to predict the growth rate of supply, and the corresponding balance consumption growth rate is calculated. The result is as follows: supply: reduction: the flood in Thailand in January is 150 thousand tons; Increment: the foreign exchange reserves 310,000 tons. Increment of demand: tianjiao replacement of synthetic increment by 250,000 tons. Flood + alternative consumption basically offset Thailand's influence on the storage. Variable: non-standard and standard period of current carry goods release inventory 30+ 30, the inventory release pressure needs weak balance sheet support.
Aside from the arbitrage, the 4 per cent growth in 2017 is a high probability, and the corresponding consumption growth rate can be met by 0.34%, and the supply and demand balance of 17 years is defined. 18 years of supply and demand forecast according to the supply of 17 years increased by 4%, a 2% increase in demand as a benchmark for forecast, supply in accordance with the most pessimistic forecasts 3%, only 1.32% can meet the demand, it should be said that the Chinese in the 17 years of low season, 18 years return to rapid growth in the background is easy to implement, so we have 18 years of supply and demand is more optimistic.
Overall, the tone of 17 years: tight balance between supply and demand, liquidity premium still exists. The short-term macro and the overall commodity atmosphere are all weak, and future futures contracts will be subject to the price of about 1,500 yuan/ton when the contract is settled in 709/711 contracts. Operation strategy: if the main contract falls to 13000-14000 yuan/ton, then it has the value of buying, and holding the exhibition period on the 18-year contract is a great probability. The spread of 9-1 in arbitrage is less than 1,500 yuan per ton.